To read the full post, please go to: https://www.ocrolus.com/blog/data-visualizations-paycheck-protection-program/

Over $500 billion of funds have been disbursed in only a couple months.  This is particularly massive, considering that the SBA lent $28 billion in all of 2019.  As we can see in this graph, the program experienced 2 distinct surges in volume, with over $200 billion approved in the first 10 days.

To read the full post, please go to: https://www.ocrolus.com/blog/new-analytics-for-small-business-lending/

As cities, states, and the nation reopen, small business’ access to capital will be a critical ingredient in recovery.  The colossal pandemic of COVID-19 has had a wide-ranging impact on public health, civil society, and the economy.   In the world of financial services and financial technology, companies lending to small businesses were among the hardest-hit. Most lenders severely curtailed their operations, with many pausing non-government-backed lending completely.   This historic pandemic has revealed countless truths, among them the insufficiency of credit data and the need for small business lenders to adopt a deeper, more data-driven, and more personalized approach to risk management.  In this post, we outline several analytical principles for recovery, with data sources and metrics that are likely to be useful for lenders seeking to restart with confidence.

To read the full post, please go to: https://www.ocrolus.com/the-insufficiency-of-credit-data-in-a-non-financial-crisis/

Credit scores and the data that underlie them have become a mainstay of American life over the past few decades.  Consumers seeking credit – a credit card, mortgage or auto loan – and businesses seeking capital – a loan, line of credit, equipment lease, receivables advance, or commercial mortgage – have become keenly aware of their scores.  Lenders of all stripes, from the oldest banks to the newest fintech companies, use credit data and scores to make approval decisions, set rates, assign lines of credit, and manage customer exposure.  In most environments, this method works reasonably well. Detailed data on whether someone has paid back prior debt is generally predictive of whether he/she will in the future.  However, as the recent crisis has shown us, there are times when negative external forces are so great that the paradigm shifts completely, where credit data goes from highly valuable to woefully insufficient.  

Please read this post in full at CIOApplications: https://personalization.cioapplications.com/cxoinsights/personalization-and-humanity-in-financial-technology-nid-3977.html

Small and intimate vs. large and impersonal. Is it really that simple? In the past decade, this contrast has begun to break down and, in some industries, has been upended completely. In financial services, this transformation is only just beginning to take place. Today’s FinTech companies have an opportunity to radically personalize the experience of financial services for consumers and businesses. Accomplishing this transformation will require combining a unique and somewhat tricky set of ingredients…

The last public advocate election in NY had just over 6% participation. I didn’t vote in it, and before yesterday, I didn’t realize the next election for public advocate is today — Tuesday, February 26.

Despite the low levels of participation, elections have an impact, and these roles in municipal government matter. Researching the various candidates, I was surprised to see very little focus on matters of economic development. Therefore, in consideration of voting tomorrow, it is useful to remember a few things about economic development and the factors that make a city an attractive place to live and work.

A fundamental property of a dynamic market economy is that things come and go. Industries, companies, products, people; new ones are created, and old ones fade away. This causes a lot of understandable anxiety in the present and near-term future but is easier to contextualize if we zoom out to a longer time horizon. I doubt many people are advocating the resurgence of defunct typewriter factories or domestic textile mills, and most are probably glad to have significantly higher growth and wages in other industries.

The exodus of firms and industries cannot, for the most part, be stopped. It is an inevitable consequence of human progress, a civic and economic equivalent to the biological circle of life. The coming, however, is a different story. It is possible to create environments that are more attractive to businesses and people, and every city needs to plan thoughtfully for the role they want to play in economic development. History is littered with cities that were meccas of industry and fantastic creators of wealth that succumbed to decay once those industries declined and new ones did not come. For example, Gary, Indiana was a thriving center of the American steel industry and decayed sharply once that business declined.

People make choices on where they want to live and work. Companies make choices on where to build offices, manufacture products, and market their services. Developers make choices on where to build new housing. Immigrants make choices on which cities and towns give them the best opportunity to pursue their American dreams. The cities that win the future will be those who attract those that seek opportunity.

This is not only about commerce. It is important for our society to have a robust safety net. Healthcare for all so people don’t have to worry about bankruptcy and foreclosure if they get sick; assistance for the disabled and unemployed so that nobody need go hungry; access to education to allow everyone to reach his or her potential and to fulfill the promise of economic mobility embedded within America’s ideals. Of course, all these things cost money, and the way that governments obtain money is through creation of an environment that promotes economic growth and then taxing that growth to fund government operations and investment. Cities that don’t provide this favorable environment will not only lose business; they will lose the ability to provide the human experience that befits a wealthy country in the 21st century.

The recent episode of Amazon’s initial selection and then rejection of NYC as a 2nd headquarters location is a great example of these dynamics coming to bear in an intensely political climate. There are many complexities to that particular situation, and they are best addressed in the statement from NY State Budget Director Robert Mujica — someone with intimate knowledge of the details.

New York City has a choice as to what its future will be, and each of us can participate in this choice. If you are interested in these matters, please consider researching the candidates and voting in this and other elections.